Pennsylvania vs. Colgate: Final Score & Recap

CommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Pennsylvania

▸0020

Colgate0-1

06

Final

Andy Kerr Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
PENN	3	10	7	0	20
COLG	3	3	0	0	6

PENNTeam statsCOLG

276Total yards257

166Pass197

110Rush60

19First downs19

5-133rd down4-17

1Turnovers2

30:44Possession29:16

Scoring plays

• Q3 13:41PENNMaurcus McDaniel 22 Yd pass from Aidan Sayin (Graham Gotlieb Kick)20–6
• Q2 1:36PENNJared Richardson 6 Yd pass from Aidan Sayin (Graham Gotlieb Kick)13–6
• Q2 6:50COLGJacob Jaworski 25 Yd Field Goal 6–6
• Q2 13:40PENNGraham Gotlieb 25 Yd Field Goal 6–3
• Q1 6:52COLGJacob Jaworski 25 Yd Field Goal 3–3
• Q1 10:27PENNGraham Gotlieb 42 Yd Field Goal 3–0

How the model called it

Market line

PENN −9.5

Against the number

PENN covered

line PENN −9.5

What the numbers say

• COLG played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and PENN did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.8 vs 3rd & 7.2

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

PENN aheadCOLG ahead

Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = PENN ahead, below = COLG ahead.

GRIDPEX.COM

Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

PENN −9.5

Closing total

46.5

Model line

—

Actual result

PENN 20 – 6 COLG

Leaders

Pennsylvania

• PassAidan Sayin 26/43, 166 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
• RushJacob Cisneros 8 CAR, 65 YDS
• RecJared Richardson 7 REC, 62 YDS, 1 TD

Colgate

• PassMichael Brescia 18/42, 186 YDS, 2 INT
• RushJaedon Henry 11 CAR, 48 YDS
• RecWinston Moore 4 REC, 71 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

24.1sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

148

Points / snap

0.18

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

PENN up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,010 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

94%

PENN went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WVanderbilt vs Hawai'i35-28WFurman vs Tennessee Tech45-10WTulane vs South Alabama37-17WWilliam & Mary vs Wofford23-6WOld Dominion vs Louisiana38-31

Fourth downs

18 calls

COLG gave up 1.5 points to the model on fourth down.PENN 3/6 · COLG 6/10 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Pennsylvania vs. Colgate?

Pennsylvania 20, Colgate 6.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

No — the model picked COLG, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

PENN

COLG

49%

Success rate

31%

-0.08

EPA / pass

-0.08

0.07

EPA / rush

-0.14

52%

Early-down success

33%

43%

Pass success

33%

61%

Rush success

28%

7%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

8%

9%

Stuffed rush rate

31%

67%

Pass rate

63%

7.2

Avg 3rd-down distance

9.8

PENN

7.2 yards to go on 3rd down

70 scrimmage snaps

COLG

9.8 yards to go on 3rd down

78 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

PENN		COLG
276	Total yards	257
166	Passing yards	197
110	Rushing yards	60
19	First downs	19
5-13	3rd down	4-17
0-1	4th down	2-5
26/43	Comp/Att	19/43
3.9	Yards per pass	4.6
4.4	Yards per rush	1.8
1	Turnovers	2
9-70	Penalties	8-79
30:44	Possession	29:16

Fourth downs

18 calls

PENN

3/6 with the model

−1.5 pts · −0.0% win prob

COLG

6/10 with the model

−1.5 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q2 0:23 PENN punt on 4th & 1 at PENN 30. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.07 points.

Every call, priced (18)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

PENN 3/11 scoring drives← own end zone →COLG 2/12 scoring drives

COLGUncateg4 pl, 3 yds· own 25Q1

PENNFG7 pl, 24 yds· opp 49Q1

COLGFG12 pl, 68 yds· own 25Q1

PENNPUNT8 pl, 10 yds· own 20Q1

COLGINT8 pl, 38 yds· own 30Q1

PENNFG8 pl, 52 yds· own 40Q1

COLGUncateg4 pl, 2 yds· own 35Q2

PENNPUNT5 pl, 10 yds· own 20Q2

COLGFG9 pl, 52 yds· own 40Q2

PENNTD12 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2

COLGPUNT3 pl, -12 yds· own 25Q2

PENNPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 21Q2

COLGEND3 pl, 0 yds· own 43Q2

PENNTD6 pl, 41 yds· opp 41Q3

COLGPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 17Q3

PENNINT7 pl, 30 yds· opp 40Q3

COLGDOWNS5 pl, 45 yds· own 20Q3

PENNPUNT5 pl, 7 yds· own 35Q3

COLGDOWNS12 pl, 36 yds· own 17Q3

PENNPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 47Q4

COLGINT7 pl, 25 yds· own 20Q4

PENNDOWNS8 pl, 36 yds· own 38Q4

COLGDOWNS11 pl, 37 yds· own 26Q4

Scoring plays

• Q3 13:41PENNMaurcus McDaniel 22 Yd pass from Aidan Sayin (Graham Gotlieb Kick)20–6
• Q2 1:36PENNJared Richardson 6 Yd pass from Aidan Sayin (Graham Gotlieb Kick)13–6
• Q2 6:50COLGJacob Jaworski 25 Yd Field Goal 6–6
• Q2 13:40PENNGraham Gotlieb 25 Yd Field Goal 6–3
• Q1 6:52COLGJacob Jaworski 25 Yd Field Goal 3–3
• Q1 10:27PENNGraham Gotlieb 42 Yd Field Goal 3–0

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →