Northwestern (IA) vs. Drake: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Northwestern (IA)

▸0027

Drake0-1

0024

Final/OT

Drake Stadium

	1	2	3	4	OT	T
NORT	3	7	3	8	6	27
DRAK	0	14	0	7	3	24

NORTTeam statsDRAK

369Total yards353

224Pass253

145Rush100

27First downs21

5-133rd down6-12

0Turnovers1

31:55Possession28:05

Scoring plays

• OT 0:00NORTKonner McQuillan 16 Yd Run 33–24
• OT 0:00DRAKShane Dunning 40 Yd Field Goal21–24
• Q4 0:43NORTKonner McQuillan 38 Yd pass from Jalyn Gramstad (Jalyn Gramstad Pass to Michael Storey for Two-Point Conversion)21–21
• Q4 6:12DRAKTrey Radocha 23 Yd pass from Luke Bailey (Shane Dunning Kick)13–21
• Q3 2:53NORTEli Stader 31 Yd Field Goal 13–14
• Q2 1:02DRAKIan Corwin 9 Yd pass from Luke Bailey (Shane Dunning Kick)10–14
• Q2 3:45NORTLogan Meyer 2 Yd Run (Eli Stader Kick)10–7
• Q2 7:10DRAKDavion Cherwin 1 Yd Run (Shane Dunning Kick)3–7
• Q1 10:22NORTEli Stader 49 Yd Field Goal 3–0

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

DRAK 100%50%NORT 100%

Kickoff117 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

DRAK (top)NORT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: DRAK 0%

Leaders

Northwestern (IA)

• PassJalyn Gramstad 25/35, 224 YDS, 1 TD
• RushJalyn Gramstad 19 CAR, 114 YDS
• RecMichael Storey 10 REC, 81 YDS

Drake

• PassLuke Bailey 24/32, 253 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
• RushDoe Boyland 9 CAR, 46 YDS
• RecSam Rodriguez 5 REC, 60 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

29.4sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

96

Points / snap

0.53

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

DRAK up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,448 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

65%

DRAK went on to win

A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common

Most comparable games

WSan Diego State vs Ohio20-13LNebraska vs Minnesota10-13LMorgan State vs Akron21-24WHawai'i vs UAlbany31-20LWofford vs Presbyterian20-23

Fourth downs

14 calls

DRAK gave up 1.2 points to the model on fourth down.NORT 5/6 · DRAK 2/4 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Northwestern (IA) vs. Drake?

Northwestern (IA) 27, Drake 24.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

No — the model picked DRAK, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

NORT

DRAK

56%

Success rate

50%

0.15

EPA / pass

0.64

0.40

EPA / rush

-0.14

63%

Early-down success

47%

48%

Pass success

56%

68%

Rush success

44%

13%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

13%

5%

Stuffed rush rate

35%

60%

Pass rate

52%

8.4

Avg 3rd-down distance

8.4

NORT

8.4 yards to go on 3rd down

48 scrimmage snaps

DRAK

8.4 yards to go on 3rd down

48 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

NORT		DRAK
369	Total yards	353
224	Passing yards	253
145	Rushing yards	100
27	First downs	21
5-13	3rd down	6-12
1-1	4th down	0-0
25/35	Comp/Att	24/32
6.4	Yards per pass	7.9
5.2	Yards per rush	3.7
0	Turnovers	1
6-36	Penalties	14-153
31:55	Possession	28:05

Fourth downs

14 calls

NORT

5/6 with the model

−0.6 pts · −0.0% win prob

DRAK

2/4 with the model

−1.2 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q3 11:01 DRAK punt on 4th & 3 at NORT 48. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.69 points.

Every call, priced (14)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

NORT 5/11 scoring drives← own end zone →DRAK 4/10 scoring drives

DRAKPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 16Q1

NORTFG6 pl, 23 yds· own 45Q1

DRAKPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 18Q1

NORTTD11 pl, 70 yds· own 30Q1

DRAKTD19 pl, 83 yds· own 17Q1

DRAKTD4 pl, 2 yds· opp 25Q1

NORTTD3 pl, 25 yds· opp 25Q1

NORTTD6 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2

DRAKTD7 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2

NORTMISS8 pl, 45 yds· own 25Q2

NORTPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q3

DRAKPUNT4 pl, 20 yds· own 32Q3

NORTFG13 pl, 73 yds· own 13Q3

DRAKPUNT8 pl, 53 yds· own 6Q3

DRAKINT3 pl, 21 yds· own 31Q4

NORTMISS8 pl, 54 yds· own 12Q4

DRAKTD9 pl, 66 yds· own 34Q4

NORTPUNT4 pl, 20 yds· own 28Q4

DRAKPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 38Q4

NORTTD11 pl, 90 yds· own 10Q4

NORTMISS3 pl, 23 yds· own 39Q4

Scoring plays

• OT 0:00NORTKonner McQuillan 16 Yd Run 33–24
• OT 0:00DRAKShane Dunning 40 Yd Field Goal21–24
• Q4 0:43NORTKonner McQuillan 38 Yd pass from Jalyn Gramstad (Jalyn Gramstad Pass to Michael Storey for Two-Point Conversion)21–21
• Q4 6:12DRAKTrey Radocha 23 Yd pass from Luke Bailey (Shane Dunning Kick)13–21
• Q3 2:53NORTEli Stader 31 Yd Field Goal 13–14
• Q2 1:02DRAKIan Corwin 9 Yd pass from Luke Bailey (Shane Dunning Kick)10–14
• Q2 3:45NORTLogan Meyer 2 Yd Run (Eli Stader Kick)10–7
• Q2 7:10DRAKDavion Cherwin 1 Yd Run (Shane Dunning Kick)3–7
• Q1 10:22NORTEli Stader 49 Yd Field Goal 3–0

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →