Morgan State vs. Akron: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Morgan State

0021

Akron0-1

▸0024

Final

InfoCision Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
MORG	0	7	14	0	21
AKR	3	14	0	7	24

MORGTeam statsAKR

231Total yards270

152Pass266

79Rush4

17First downs17

2-163rd down4-11

3Turnovers5

32:45Possession27:04

Scoring plays

• Q4 0:52AKRBryan McCoy 13 Yd Fumble Return (Noah Perez Kick)21–24
• Q3 1:55MORGTreveyon Pratt 12 Yd pass from Duce Taylor (Beckett Leary Kick)21–17
• Q3 4:23MORGTreveyon Pratt 31 Yd pass from Duce Taylor (Beckett Leary Kick)14–17
• Q2 0:14AKRDevonte Golden-Nelson 50 Yd Interception Return (Noah Perez Kick)7–17
• Q2 0:50AKRAlex Adams 29 Yd pass from Jeff Undercuffler Jr. (Noah Perez Kick)7–10
• Q2 5:32MORGMatt Lowe 8 Yd pass from Dominique Anthony (Beckett Leary Kick)7–3
• Q1 11:18AKRNoah Perez 22 Yd Field Goal 0–3

How the model called it

Market line

AKR −25

Against the number

MORG covered

line AKR −25

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

AKR 100%50%MORG 100%

Kickoff125 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

AKR (top)MORG (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: AKR 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

AKR −25

Closing total

46.0

Model line

—

Actual result

MORG 21 – 24 AKR

Leaders

Morgan State

• PassDuce Taylor 9/18, 102 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
• RushJ.J. Davis 19 CAR, 44 YDS
• RecTreveyon Pratt 5 REC, 60 YDS, 2 TD

Akron

• PassJeff Undercuffler Jr. 18/25, 209 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
• RushDrake Anderson 6 CAR, 27 YDS
• RecJasaiah Gathings 7 REC, 86 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

33.9sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

106

Points / snap

0.42

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

MORG up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,447 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

65%

MORG went on to win

A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common

Most comparable games

WSan Diego State vs Ohio20-13LNebraska vs Minnesota10-13LDrake vs Northwestern (IA)24-33WHawai'i vs UAlbany31-20LWofford vs Presbyterian20-23

Fourth downs

18 calls

AKR gave up 2.5 points to the model on fourth down.MORG 7/10 · AKR 4/7 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Morgan State vs. Akron?

Morgan State 21, Akron 24.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (AKR) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

MORG

AKR

30%

Success rate

35%

-0.19

EPA / pass

-0.28

-0.13

EPA / rush

-0.42

33%

Early-down success

35%

32%

Pass success

42%

28%

Rush success

17%

10%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

9%

24%

Stuffed rush rate

50%

54%

Pass rate

72%

9.2

Avg 3rd-down distance

8.4

MORG

9.2 yards to go on 3rd down

63 scrimmage snaps

AKR

8.4 yards to go on 3rd down

43 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

MORG		AKR
231	Total yards	270
152	Passing yards	266
79	Rushing yards	4
17	First downs	17
2-16	3rd down	4-11
2-4	4th down	0-1
15/33	Comp/Att	25/34
4.6	Yards per pass	7.8
2.0	Yards per rush	0.2
3	Turnovers	5
5-51	Penalties	8-70
32:45	Possession	27:04

Fourth downs

18 calls

MORG

7/10 with the model

−1.5 pts · −0.0% win prob

AKR

4/7 with the model

−2.5 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q1 0:35 AKR punt on 4th & 2 at MORG 45. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.19 points.

Every call, priced (18)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

MORG 5/16 scoring drives← own end zone →AKR 2/11 scoring drives

MORGPUNT3 pl, -10 yds· own 41Q1

AKRFG4 pl, 3 yds· opp 7Q1

MORGPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 24Q1

AKRPUNT12 pl, 13 yds· own 27Q1

MORGPUNT4 pl, -5 yds· own 21Q1

AKRPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 47Q1

MORGPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 5Q1

AKRDOWNS4 pl, -2 yds· opp 37Q2

MORGTD12 pl, 61 yds· own 39Q2

MORGDOWNS6 pl, 25 yds· own 42Q2

AKRTD5 pl, 67 yds· own 33Q2

MORGTD3 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2

MORGEND1 pl, 0 yds· own 7Q2

AKRPUNT3 pl, -6 yds· opp 40Q3

MORGPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 10Q3

MORGPUNT6 pl, 9 yds· midfieldQ3

AKRINT6 pl, 26 yds· own 20Q3

MORGTD2 pl, 31 yds· opp 31Q3

AKRINT4 pl, 27 yds· own 38Q3

MORGTD2 pl, 13 yds· opp 13Q3

AKRPUNT5 pl, 36 yds· own 30Q3

MORGINT10 pl, 60 yds· own 14Q4

AKRMISS4 pl, 3 yds· opp 35Q4

MORGPUNT7 pl, 26 yds· own 32Q4

AKRINT11 pl, 69 yds· own 20Q4

MORGTD3 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q4

MORGDOWNS5 pl, 6 yds· own 26Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 0:52AKRBryan McCoy 13 Yd Fumble Return (Noah Perez Kick)21–24
• Q3 1:55MORGTreveyon Pratt 12 Yd pass from Duce Taylor (Beckett Leary Kick)21–17
• Q3 4:23MORGTreveyon Pratt 31 Yd pass from Duce Taylor (Beckett Leary Kick)14–17
• Q2 0:14AKRDevonte Golden-Nelson 50 Yd Interception Return (Noah Perez Kick)7–17
• Q2 0:50AKRAlex Adams 29 Yd pass from Jeff Undercuffler Jr. (Noah Perez Kick)7–10
• Q2 5:32MORGMatt Lowe 8 Yd pass from Dominique Anthony (Beckett Leary Kick)7–3
• Q1 11:18AKRNoah Perez 22 Yd Field Goal 0–3

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →