Montana vs. UC Davis: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Montana4-1
▸
UC Davis0-1
Final
Aggie StadiumConference game
MONTTeam statsUC D
424Total yards435
243Pass359
181Rush76
15First downs21
9-193rd down6-15
2Turnovers2
30:14Possession29:46
- Q4 3:58UC DHunter Ridley 42 Yd Field Goal 31–23
- Q4 7:03MONTGrant Glasgow 38 Yd Field Goal 31–20
- Q3 2:32MONTEli Gillman 85 Yd Run (Grant Glasgow Kick)28–20
- Q2 1:12MONTAaron Fontes 41 Yd pass from Clifton McDowell (Grant Glasgow Kick)21–20
- Q2 2:15UC DSamuel Gbatu Jr. 14 Yd pass from Miles Hastings (Hunter Ridley Kick)14–20
- Q2 5:21MONTAaron Fontes 11 Yd pass from Clifton McDowell (Grant Glasgow Kick)14–13
- Q2 10:18UC DChaz Davis 1 Yd pass from Miles Hastings (Hunter Ridley PAT failed)7–13
- Q1 1:53UC DC.J. Hutton 4 Yd Run (Hunter Ridley Kick)7–7
- Q1 5:51MONTKeelan White 21 Yd pass from Clifton McDowell (Grant Glasgow Kick)7–0
How the model called it
Market line
UC D −7.5
Against the number
MONT covered
line UC D −7.5
What the numbers say
- MONT played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UC D did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.4 vs 3rd & 6.2
- MONT lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 17% explosive on a 29% success rate
Kickoff161 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
UC D (top)MONT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: UC D 0%
Closing line
UC D −7.5
Closing total
50.5
Model line
—
Actual result
MONT 31 – 23 UC D
Montana
- PassClifton McDowell 18/32, 243 YDS, 3 TD
- RushEli Gillman 8 CAR, 86 YDS, 1 TD
- RecAaron Fontes 5 REC, 99 YDS, 2 TD
UC Davis
- PassMiles Hastings 31/46, 359 YDS, 2 TD
- RushJordan Fisher 17 CAR, 57 YDS
- RecChaz Davis 5 REC, 74 YDS, 1 TD
25sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
144
Points / snap
0.38
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMONT up 8 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,587 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
85%
MONT went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Montana vs. UC Davis?
Montana 31, UC Davis 23.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UC D, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
MONT
UC D
29%
Success rate
33%
0.48
EPA / pass
0.22
-0.17
EPA / rush
-0.08
23%
Early-down success
33%
37%
Pass success
40%
22%
Rush success
21%
17%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
18%
41%
Stuffed rush rate
13%
49%
Pass rate
67%
8.4
Avg 3rd-down distance
6.2
MONT
8.4 yards to go on 3rd down
72 scrimmage snaps
UC D
6.2 yards to go on 3rd down
72 scrimmage snaps
| MONT | UC D | |
|---|---|---|
| 424 | Total yards | 435 |
| 243 | Passing yards | 359 |
| 181 | Rushing yards | 76 |
| 15 | First downs | 21 |
| 9-19 | 3rd down | 6-15 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 18/32 | Comp/Att | 31/47 |
| 7.6 | Yards per pass | 7.6 |
| 4.6 | Yards per rush | 3.0 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 7-70 | Penalties | 4-25 |
| 30:14 | Possession | 29:46 |
MONT
5/6 with the model
nothing given up
UC D
8/9 with the model
−0.3 pts · −0.0% win prob
Costliest call
Q2 0:32 UC D go for it on 4th & 7 at UC D 43. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.32 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishMONT 5/15 scoring drives← own end zone →UC D 4/13 scoring drives
UC DPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q1
MONTFUM5 pl, 33 yds· opp 37Q1
UC DPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 4Q1
MONTTD8 pl, 58 yds· own 42Q1
UC DTD9 pl, 90 yds· own 10Q1
MONTPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q1
MONTPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· opp 49Q1
UC DTD8 pl, 94 yds· own 6Q2
MONTTD9 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q2
UC DTD8 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2
MONTTD5 pl, 66 yds· own 34Q2
UC DDOWNS6 pl, 20 yds· own 25Q2
MONTEND3 pl, 3 yds· opp 45Q2
MONTPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q3
UC DDOWNS5 pl, 32 yds· own 28Q3
MONTMISS10 pl, 34 yds· own 40Q3
UC DPUNT4 pl, 21 yds· own 32Q3
MONTPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 6Q3
UC DPUNT4 pl, 5 yds· own 38Q3
MONTTD1 pl, 85 yds· own 15Q3
UC DPUNT5 pl, 14 yds· own 25Q3
MONTFUM10 pl, 63 yds· own 24Q3
UC DPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 13Q4
MONTFG4 pl, 5 yds· opp 26Q4
UC DFG9 pl, 50 yds· own 25Q4
MONTPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q4
UC DFUM6 pl, 55 yds· own 35Q4
MONTEND3 pl, -7 yds· own 10Q4
- Q4 3:58UC DHunter Ridley 42 Yd Field Goal 31–23
- Q4 7:03MONTGrant Glasgow 38 Yd Field Goal 31–20
- Q3 2:32MONTEli Gillman 85 Yd Run (Grant Glasgow Kick)28–20
- Q2 1:12MONTAaron Fontes 41 Yd pass from Clifton McDowell (Grant Glasgow Kick)21–20
- Q2 2:15UC DSamuel Gbatu Jr. 14 Yd pass from Miles Hastings (Hunter Ridley Kick)14–20
- Q2 5:21MONTAaron Fontes 11 Yd pass from Clifton McDowell (Grant Glasgow Kick)14–13
- Q2 10:18UC DChaz Davis 1 Yd pass from Miles Hastings (Hunter Ridley PAT failed)7–13
- Q1 1:53UC DC.J. Hutton 4 Yd Run (Hunter Ridley Kick)7–7
- Q1 5:51MONTKeelan White 21 Yd pass from Clifton McDowell (Grant Glasgow Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →