East Tennessee State vs. Jacksonville State: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

East Tennessee State

03

Jacksonville State1-0

▸0049

Final

AmFirst Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
EAST	3	0	0	0	3
JXST	14	7	21	7	49

EASTTeam statsJXST

204Total yards364

117Pass127

87Rush237

12First downs25

1-113rd down7-13

4Turnovers0

29:17Possession30:43

Scoring plays

• Q4 13:54JXSTJ'Wan Evans 2 Yd Run (Alen Karajic Kick)3–49
• Q3 7:12JXSTJ'Wan Evans 2 Yd Run (Alen Karajic Kick)3–42
• Q3 11:54JXSTLogan Smothers 3 Yd Run (Alen Karajic Kick)3–35
• Q3 13:35JXSTMalik Jackson 42 Yd Run (Alen Karajic Kick)3–28
• Q2 4:06JXSTLogan Smothers 2 Yd Run (Alen Karajic Kick)3–21
• Q1 1:49JXSTRon Wiggins 10 Yd Run (Alen Karajic Kick)3–14
• Q1 3:20JXSTSterling Galban 23 Yd pass from Logan Smothers (Alen Karajic Kick)3–7
• Q1 9:18EASTEwan Johnson 27 Yd Field Goal 3–0

How the model called it

Market line

JXST −20

Against the number

JXST covered

line JXST −20

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

JXST 100%50%EAST 100%

Kickoff161 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

JXST (top)EAST (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: JXST 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

JXST −20

Closing total

55.0

Model line

—

Actual result

EAST 3 – 49 JXST

Leaders

East Tennessee State

• PassTyler Ridell 10/17, 117 YDS, 1 INT
• RushBryson Irby 16 CAR, 46 YDS
• RecXavier Gaillardetz 3 REC, 69 YDS

Jacksonville State

• PassLogan Smothers 13/17, 127 YDS, 1 TD
• RushMalik Jackson 12 CAR, 100 YDS, 1 TD
• RecJamarye Joiner 2 REC, 37 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

26.3sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

137

Points / snap

0.38

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

JXST up 39 entering the 4th quarter. Across 216 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

JXST went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WSouthern Illinois vs Austin Peay49-23WOhio State vs Western Kentucky63-10WJacksonville State vs Louisiana Tech56-17WOregon vs Arizona State49-13WNorthern Illinois vs Western Illinois54-15

Fourth downs

14 calls

EAST gave up 1.3 points to the model on fourth down.EAST 5/8 · JXST 3/5 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of East Tennessee State vs. Jacksonville State?

East Tennessee State 3, Jacksonville State 49.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (JXST) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

EAST

JXST

25%

Success rate

44%

-0.03

EPA / pass

0.24

-0.21

EPA / rush

0.23

29%

Early-down success

43%

36%

Pass success

38%

19%

Rush success

46%

10%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

10%

19%

Stuffed rush rate

22%

37%

Pass rate

31%

8.0

Avg 3rd-down distance

7.5

EAST

8.0 yards to go on 3rd down

59 scrimmage snaps

JXST

7.5 yards to go on 3rd down

78 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

EAST		JXST
204	Total yards	364
117	Passing yards	127
87	Rushing yards	237
12	First downs	25
1-11	3rd down	7-13
0-0	4th down	0-0
10/18	Comp/Att	13/19
6.5	Yards per pass	6.7
2.3	Yards per rush	4.2
4	Turnovers	0
9-88	Penalties	7-65
29:17	Possession	30:43

Fourth downs

14 calls

EAST

5/8 with the model

−1.3 pts · −0.0% win prob

JXST

3/5 with the model

−1.0 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q2 14:38 EAST punt on 4th & 16 at JXST 35. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 1.07 points.

Every call, priced (14)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

EAST 1/14 scoring drives← own end zone →JXST 7/14 scoring drives

EASTPUNT4 pl, 18 yds· own 25Q1

JXSTPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 20Q1

EASTFG7 pl, 56 yds· own 39Q1

JXSTPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q1

EASTPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 10Q1

JXSTTD6 pl, 61 yds· own 39Q1

EASTINT2 pl, 0 yds· own 14Q1

JXSTTD2 pl, 10 yds· opp 10Q1

EASTPUNT7 pl, 49 yds· own 16Q1

JXSTPUNT11 pl, 30 yds· own 5Q2

EASTPUNT5 pl, 23 yds· own 11Q2

JXSTTD9 pl, 61 yds· own 39Q2

EASTPUNT6 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q2

JXSTMISS7 pl, 35 yds· own 30Q2

JXSTTD5 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3

EASTFUM2 pl, 0 yds· own 23Q3

JXSTTD3 pl, 23 yds· opp 23Q3

EASTFUM4 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q3

JXSTTD7 pl, 32 yds· opp 32Q3

EASTPUNT5 pl, 25 yds· own 25Q3

JXSTPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 13Q3

EASTINT2 pl, 0 yds· own 39Q3

JXSTTD6 pl, 24 yds· opp 24Q3

EASTPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q4

JXSTPUNT6 pl, 17 yds· own 38Q4

EASTPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 9Q4

JXSTPUNT5 pl, 0 yds· own 39Q4

EASTEND4 pl, 20 yds· own 20Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 13:54JXSTJ'Wan Evans 2 Yd Run (Alen Karajic Kick)3–49
• Q3 7:12JXSTJ'Wan Evans 2 Yd Run (Alen Karajic Kick)3–42
• Q3 11:54JXSTLogan Smothers 3 Yd Run (Alen Karajic Kick)3–35
• Q3 13:35JXSTMalik Jackson 42 Yd Run (Alen Karajic Kick)3–28
• Q2 4:06JXSTLogan Smothers 2 Yd Run (Alen Karajic Kick)3–21
• Q1 1:49JXSTRon Wiggins 10 Yd Run (Alen Karajic Kick)3–14
• Q1 3:20JXSTSterling Galban 23 Yd pass from Logan Smothers (Alen Karajic Kick)3–7
• Q1 9:18EASTEwan Johnson 27 Yd Field Goal 3–0

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →