Duquesne vs. Coastal Carolina: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Duquesne0-1

07

Coastal Carolina1-1

▸0066

Final

Brooks Stadium (SC)

	1	2	3	4	T
DUQU	0	0	7	0	7
CCU	21	24	21	0	66

DUQUTeam statsCCU

347Total yards515

164Pass274

183Rush241

16First downs23

4-133rd down6-8

4Turnovers1

33:45Possession26:15

Scoring plays

• Q3 2:02CCUJa'Vin Simpkins 3 Yd Run (Kade Hensley Kick)7–66
• Q3 6:26DUQUKeshawn Brown 23 Yd pass from Matthew Robinson (Brian Bruzdewicz Kick)7–59
• Q3 10:53CCUMax Balthazar 2 Yd Run (Kade Hensley Kick)0–59
• Q3 14:45CCUKyre Duplessis 64 Yd pass from Jarrett Guest (Liam Gray Kick)0–52
• Q2 0:43CCUTobias Fletcher 100 Yd Interception Return (Liam Gray Kick)0–45
• Q2 4:27CCUCJ Beasley 10 Yd Run (Liam Gray Kick)0–38
• Q2 8:40CCULiam Gray 28 Yd Field Goal 0–31
• Q2 14:33CCUBraydon Bennett 1 Yd Run (Liam Gray Kick)0–28
• Q1 2:47CCUSam Pinckney 11 Yd pass from Grayson McCall (Liam Gray Kick)0–21
• Q1 10:49CCUJT Killen 30 Yd Interception Return (Liam Gray Kick)0–14
• Q1 11:39CCUKendall Karr 20 Yd pass from Grayson McCall (Liam Gray Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

CCU −35

Against the number

CCU covered

line CCU −35

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

CCU 100%50%DUQU 100%

Kickoff135 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

CCU (top)DUQU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: CCU 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

CCU −35

Closing total

55.5

Model line

—

Actual result

DUQU 7 – 66 CCU

Leaders

Duquesne

• PassDarius Perrantes 8/20, 95 YDS, 3 INT
• RushEdward Robinson 13 CAR, 96 YDS
• RecKeshawn Brown 7 REC, 90 YDS, 1 TD

Coastal Carolina

• PassGrayson McCall 12/16, 169 YDS, 2 TD
• RushBraydon Bennett 7 CAR, 58 YDS, 1 TD
• RecKyre Duplessis 1 REC, 64 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

30.5sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

118

Points / snap

0.62

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

CCU up 59 entering the 4th quarter. Across 66 historically comparable game states (within ±3 pts and ±5 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

CCU went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WOle Miss vs Mercer73-7WArkansas-Pine Bluff vs Little Rock59-0WNicholls vs Mississippi Valley State66-0WUCLA vs North Carolina Central59-7WUT Martin vs Houston Christian66-7

Fourth downs

10 calls

DUQU gave up 2.5 points to the model on fourth down.DUQU 5/8 · CCU 1/2 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Duquesne vs. Coastal Carolina?

Duquesne 7, Coastal Carolina 66.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (CCU) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

DUQU

CCU

43%

Success rate

51%

-0.51

EPA / pass

0.95

0.17

EPA / rush

0.46

44%

Early-down success

48%

42%

Pass success

43%

43%

Rush success

56%

16%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

18%

22%

Stuffed rush rate

12%

41%

Pass rate

38%

7.2

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.6

DUQU

7.2 yards to go on 3rd down

63 scrimmage snaps

CCU

6.6 yards to go on 3rd down

55 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

DUQU		CCU
347	Total yards	515
164	Passing yards	274
183	Rushing yards	241
16	First downs	23
4-13	3rd down	6-8
2-2	4th down	0-1
13/26	Comp/Att	15/20
6.3	Yards per pass	13.7
5.1	Yards per rush	6.9
4	Turnovers	1
9-62	Penalties	3-20
33:45	Possession	26:15

Fourth downs

10 calls

DUQU

5/8 with the model

−2.5 pts · −0.0% win prob

CCU

1/2 with the model

−0.7 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q1 9:09 DUQU punt on 4th & 2 at CCU 48. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.99 points.

Every call, priced (10)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

DUQU 3/13 scoring drives← own end zone →CCU 8/9 scoring drives

DUQUPUNT4 pl, 18 yds· own 18Q1

CCUTD4 pl, 33 yds· opp 33Q1

DUQUTD2 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q1

DUQUPUNT4 pl, 27 yds· own 25Q1

CCUTD12 pl, 83 yds· own 17Q1

DUQUFUM3 pl, 50 yds· own 25Q1

CCUTD5 pl, 79 yds· own 21Q1

DUQUPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q2

CCUFG10 pl, 47 yds· own 43Q2

DUQUINT6 pl, 11 yds· own 25Q2

CCUTD4 pl, 20 yds· opp 20Q2

DUQUTD9 pl, 47 yds· own 25Q2

DUQUEND1 pl, 8 yds· own 25Q2

CCUTD1 pl, 64 yds· own 36Q3

DUQUPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q3

CCUTD7 pl, 71 yds· own 29Q3

DUQUPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q3

DUQUTD4 pl, 27 yds· opp 27Q3

CCUTD7 pl, 66 yds· own 34Q3

DUQUMISS14 pl, 61 yds· own 25Q3

CCUDOWNS6 pl, 59 yds· own 20Q4

DUQUEND7 pl, 54 yds· own 21Q4

Scoring plays

• Q3 2:02CCUJa'Vin Simpkins 3 Yd Run (Kade Hensley Kick)7–66
• Q3 6:26DUQUKeshawn Brown 23 Yd pass from Matthew Robinson (Brian Bruzdewicz Kick)7–59
• Q3 10:53CCUMax Balthazar 2 Yd Run (Kade Hensley Kick)0–59
• Q3 14:45CCUKyre Duplessis 64 Yd pass from Jarrett Guest (Liam Gray Kick)0–52
• Q2 0:43CCUTobias Fletcher 100 Yd Interception Return (Liam Gray Kick)0–45
• Q2 4:27CCUCJ Beasley 10 Yd Run (Liam Gray Kick)0–38
• Q2 8:40CCULiam Gray 28 Yd Field Goal 0–31
• Q2 14:33CCUBraydon Bennett 1 Yd Run (Liam Gray Kick)0–28
• Q1 2:47CCUSam Pinckney 11 Yd pass from Grayson McCall (Liam Gray Kick)0–21
• Q1 10:49CCUJT Killen 30 Yd Interception Return (Liam Gray Kick)0–14
• Q1 11:39CCUKendall Karr 20 Yd pass from Grayson McCall (Liam Gray Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →