Cal Poly vs. Eastern Washington: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Cal Poly0-1
Eastern Washington0-1
▸Final
Roos FieldConference game
CAL Team statsEAST
288Total yards374
176Pass169
112Rush205
18First downs21
3-143rd down4-14
3Turnovers0
35:08Possession24:52
- Q4 3:32CAL Team Safety13–48
- Q4 5:52CAL Team Safety11–48
- Q3 10:50EASTSoren McKee 23 Yd Field Goal 9–48
- Q2 0:15EASTSoren McKee 30 Yd Field Goal 9–45
- Q2 2:40EASTTuna Altahir 32 Yd Run (Soren McKee Kick)9–42
- Q2 5:55CAL Michael Briscoe 17 Yd pass from Sam Huard (Noah Serna Kick)9–35
- Q2 8:53EASTCage Schenck 16 Yd Interception Return (Soren McKee Kick)2–35
- Q2 9:02EASTJustice Jackson 22 Yd pass from Kekoa Visperas (Soren McKee Kick)2–28
- Q2 13:59EASTTuna Altahir 2 Yd pass from Kekoa Visperas (Soren McKee Kick)2–21
- Q1 4:45CAL Team Safety2–14
- Q1 12:16EASTJustice Jackson 19 Yd Run (Soren McKee Kick)0–14
- Q1 14:41EASTTuna Altahir 14 Yd Run (Soren McKee Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Market line
EAST −21.5
Against the number
EAST covered
line EAST −21.5
What the numbers say
- EAST played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and CAL did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.9 vs 3rd & 6.4
- EAST lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 15% explosive on a 40% success rate
Kickoff155 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
EAST (top)CAL (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: EAST 100%
Closing line
EAST −21.5
Closing total
62.5
Model line
—
Actual result
CAL 13 – 48 EAST
Cal Poly
- PassSam Huard 14/29, 145 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushKendric Sanders 12 CAR, 57 YDS
- RecGiancarlo Woods 4 REC, 46 YDS
Eastern Washington
- PassKekoa Visperas 15/25, 169 YDS, 2 TD
- RushTuna Altahir 12 CAR, 104 YDS, 2 TD
- RecEfton Chism III 5 REC, 62 YDS
25.8sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
139
Points / snap
0.44
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsEAST up 37 entering the 4th quarter. Across 311 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
EAST went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Cal Poly vs. Eastern Washington?
Cal Poly 13, Eastern Washington 48.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (EAST) was correct.
CAL
EAST
37%
Success rate
40%
-0.02
EPA / pass
0.36
-0.22
EPA / rush
0.42
38%
Early-down success
40%
46%
Pass success
32%
28%
Rush success
45%
5%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
15%
10%
Stuffed rush rate
8%
47%
Pass rate
39%
6.4
Avg 3rd-down distance
8.9
CAL
6.4 yards to go on 3rd down
74 scrimmage snaps
EAST
8.9 yards to go on 3rd down
65 scrimmage snaps
| CAL | EAST | |
|---|---|---|
| 288 | Total yards | 374 |
| 176 | Passing yards | 169 |
| 112 | Rushing yards | 205 |
| 18 | First downs | 21 |
| 3-14 | 3rd down | 4-14 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 17/34 | Comp/Att | 15/25 |
| 5.2 | Yards per pass | 6.8 |
| 2.8 | Yards per rush | 5.0 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 0-0 | Penalties | 2-10 |
| 35:08 | Possession | 24:52 |
CAL
6/11 with the model
−3.4 pts · −0.0% win prob
EAST
5/7 with the model
−3.5 pts · −0.0% win prob
Costliest call
Q3 10:50 EAST field goal on 4th & 1 at CAL 1. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 2.14 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishCAL 2/15 scoring drives← own end zone →EAST 8/13 scoring drives
EASTTD1 pl, 14 yds· opp 14Q1
CAL FUM4 pl, 18 yds· own 17Q1
EASTTD2 pl, 30 yds· opp 30Q1
CAL PUNT7 pl, 31 yds· own 22Q1
EASTPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 6Q1
CAL PUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 48Q1
EASTSAF3 pl, 1 yds· own 9Q1
CAL PUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 40Q1
EASTTD12 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q1
CAL PUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q2
EASTTD10 pl, 71 yds· own 29Q2
CAL TD2 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q2
CAL TD10 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2
EASTTD9 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2
CAL PUNT5 pl, 7 yds· own 21Q2
EASTFG8 pl, 51 yds· own 36Q2
CAL END1 pl, -2 yds· own 25Q2
CAL PUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 10Q3
EASTFG7 pl, 49 yds· midfieldQ3
CAL PUNT7 pl, 27 yds· own 27Q3
EASTSAF3 pl, 1 yds· own 15Q3
CAL PUNT3 pl, -5 yds· own 32Q3
EASTPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 37Q3
CAL PUNT9 pl, 45 yds· own 10Q3
EASTPUNT3 pl, -13 yds· own 20Q4
CAL FUM7 pl, 34 yds· opp 38Q4
EASTSAF4 pl, -4 yds· own 4Q4
CAL END7 pl, 33 yds· own 33Q4
- Q4 3:32CAL Team Safety13–48
- Q4 5:52CAL Team Safety11–48
- Q3 10:50EASTSoren McKee 23 Yd Field Goal 9–48
- Q2 0:15EASTSoren McKee 30 Yd Field Goal 9–45
- Q2 2:40EASTTuna Altahir 32 Yd Run (Soren McKee Kick)9–42
- Q2 5:55CAL Michael Briscoe 17 Yd pass from Sam Huard (Noah Serna Kick)9–35
- Q2 8:53EASTCage Schenck 16 Yd Interception Return (Soren McKee Kick)2–35
- Q2 9:02EASTJustice Jackson 22 Yd pass from Kekoa Visperas (Soren McKee Kick)2–28
- Q2 13:59EASTTuna Altahir 2 Yd pass from Kekoa Visperas (Soren McKee Kick)2–21
- Q1 4:45CAL Team Safety2–14
- Q1 12:16EASTJustice Jackson 19 Yd Run (Soren McKee Kick)0–14
- Q1 14:41EASTTuna Altahir 14 Yd Run (Soren McKee Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →