Akron vs. Bowling Green: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
AKRTeam statsBGSU
- Q4 8:03BGSUTyrone Broden 10 Yd pass from Matt McDonald (Nate Needham Kick)35–20
- Q4 8:55AKRBlake Hester 37 Yd Run (Cory Smigel Kick)35–13
- Q3 2:20AKRNik Ognenovic 21 Yd pass from Zach Gibson (Cory Smigel Kick)28–13
- Q3 8:47AKRKonata Mumpfield 9 Yd pass from Zach Gibson (Cory Smigel Kick)21–13
- Q3 12:48AKRKonata Mumpfield 1 Yd pass from Zach Gibson (Cory Smigel Kick)14–13
- Q2 6:07AKRBlake Hester 1 Yd Run (Cory Smigel Kick)7–13
- Q2 9:28BGSUNate Needham 26 Yd Field Goal 0–13
- Q1 5:45BGSUNate Needham 35 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 11:53BGSUTyrone Broden 40 Yd pass from Matt McDonald (Nate Needham Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- AKR played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and BGSU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.5 vs 3rd & 5.1
- PassZach Gibson 14/15, 177 YDS, 3 TD
- RushBlake Hester 20 CAR, 120 YDS, 2 TD
- RecKonata Mumpfield 6 REC, 106 YDS, 2 TD
- PassMatt McDonald 21/35, 257 YDS, 2 TD, 3 INT
- RushJaison Patterson 15 CAR, 79 YDS
- RecTyrone Broden 4 REC, 111 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsAKR up 15 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,206 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 8:56AKR +27%
Z.Gibson pass complete to BGN 9. Catch made by K.Mumpfield at BGN 9. Gain of 9 yards. K.Mumpfield for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 12:52AKR +23%
Z.Gibson pass complete to BGN 1. Catch made by K.Mumpfield at BGN 1. Gain of 1 yards. K.Mumpfield for 1 yards, TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 2:25AKR +17%
Z.Gibson pass complete to BGN 21. Catch made by N.Ognenovic at BGN 21. Gain of 21 yards. N.Ognenovic for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 11:59BGSU +14%
M.McDonald pass complete to AKR 40. Catch made by T.Broden at AKR 40. Gain of 40 yards. T.Broden for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 6:13AKR +12%
B.Hester rushed to BGN End Zone for 1 yards. B.Hester for 1 yards, TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 6:05AKR +8%
B.Hester rushed to AKR 47 for 4 yards. Tackled by A.Hawkins at AKR 47
FAQ
What was the final score of Akron vs. Bowling Green?
Akron 35, Bowling Green 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked BGSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| AKR | BGSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 385 | Total yards | 364 |
| 268 | Passing yards | 257 |
| 117 | Rushing yards | 107 |
| 18 | First downs | 18 |
| 5-13 | 3rd down | 6-15 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 20/25 | Comp/Att | 21/35 |
| 10.7 | Yards per pass | 7.3 |
| 3.0 | Yards per rush | 3.1 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 5 |
| 2-10 | Penalties | 4-30 |
| 32:22 | Possession | 27:38 |
Costliest call
Q4 5:59 AKR punt on 4th & 1 at AKR 36. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.83 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 8:03BGSUTyrone Broden 10 Yd pass from Matt McDonald (Nate Needham Kick)35–20
- Q4 8:55AKRBlake Hester 37 Yd Run (Cory Smigel Kick)35–13
- Q3 2:20AKRNik Ognenovic 21 Yd pass from Zach Gibson (Cory Smigel Kick)28–13
- Q3 8:47AKRKonata Mumpfield 9 Yd pass from Zach Gibson (Cory Smigel Kick)21–13
- Q3 12:48AKRKonata Mumpfield 1 Yd pass from Zach Gibson (Cory Smigel Kick)14–13
- Q2 6:07AKRBlake Hester 1 Yd Run (Cory Smigel Kick)7–13
- Q2 9:28BGSUNate Needham 26 Yd Field Goal 0–13
- Q1 5:45BGSUNate Needham 35 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 11:53BGSUTyrone Broden 40 Yd pass from Matt McDonald (Nate Needham Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BGSU Elo 1080, AKR Elo 948 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BGSU -7.7 (71% to win) — 6.3 points clear of AKR's market line of -14. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2021
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#36 of 112 in 2021 by biggest miss · #28 of 128 in 2021 by longest odds.
The 2021 upset archive →Bowling Green leads 21–10 · 32% have been one-possession games
| AKR | BGSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -33.1 (#128) | CORE overall | -22.1 (#116) |
| -9 / +24 | offense / defense | -20 / +2 |
| 1.59 | points / drive | 1.61 |
| 3.73 | allowed / drive | 2.73 |
| 17% | three-and-outs | 32% |
| -1 | pass over expected | +11 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →