Tulsa vs. Bowling Green: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TLSATeam statsBGSU
- Q4 5:56TLSATULSA Extra point GOOD.7–34
- Q4 5:56TLSATULSA pass complete for a touchdown.6–34
- Q4 6:48BGSUBOWLING GREEN Extra point GOOD.0–34
- Q4 6:48BGSUBOWLING GREEN punt return for a touchdown.0–33
- Q4 7:34BGSUBOWLING GREEN Extra point GOOD.0–27
- Q4 7:34BGSUBOWLING GREEN rush for a touchdown.0–26
- Q4 13:52BGSUBOWLING GREEN Extra point GOOD.0–20
- Q4 13:52BGSUBOWLING GREEN rush for a touchdown.0–19
- Q3 12:09BGSUBOWLING GREEN Extra point GOOD.0–13
- Q3 12:09BGSUBOWLING GREEN rush for a touchdown.0–12
- Q2 0:02BGSUBOWLING GREEN 28 yard field goal GOOD.0–6
- Q1 3:29BGSUBOWLING GREEN 34 yard field goal GOOD.0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- TLSA lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 27% success rate
- PassCody Green 17/34, 172 YDS
- RushJa'Terian Douglas 12 CAR, 22 YDS
- RecJordan James 3 REC, 58 YDS
- PassMatt Quinn Johnson 11/23, 151 YDS, 1 INT
- RushTravis Calton Greene 22 CAR, 88 YDS
- RecShaun Joplin 2 REC, 40 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBGSU up 13 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,180 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 12:09BGSU +18%
William Houston rush for 1 yard for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 0:02BGSU +16%
Tyler Tate 28 yard field goal GOOD
- Q4 13:52BGSU +10%
William Houston rush for 1 yard for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 3:29BGSU +8%
Tyler Tate 34 yard field goal GOOD
- Q3 7:40BGSU +6%
Matt Johnson rush for 4 yards to the BwGrn 23
- Q3 5:17BGSU +5%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Tyler Beck for 13 yards to the BwGrn 38 for a 1ST down
FAQ
What was the final score of Tulsa vs. Bowling Green?
Tulsa 7, Bowling Green 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked TLSA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| TLSA | BGSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 273 | Total yards | 396 |
| 222 | Passing yards | 163 |
| 51 | Rushing yards | 233 |
| 12 | First downs | 23 |
| 6-17 | 3rd down | 3-13 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 20/41 | Comp/Att | 12/28 |
| 5.4 | Yards per pass | 5.8 |
| 2.1 | Yards per rush | 4.4 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-25 | Penalties | 6-60 |
| 27:25 | Possession | 38:40 |
Costliest call
Q2 10:27 TLSA punt on 4th & 1 at TLSA 32. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.94 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:56TLSATULSA Extra point GOOD.7–34
- Q4 5:56TLSATULSA pass complete for a touchdown.6–34
- Q4 6:48BGSUBOWLING GREEN Extra point GOOD.0–34
- Q4 6:48BGSUBOWLING GREEN punt return for a touchdown.0–33
- Q4 7:34BGSUBOWLING GREEN Extra point GOOD.0–27
- Q4 7:34BGSUBOWLING GREEN rush for a touchdown.0–26
- Q4 13:52BGSUBOWLING GREEN Extra point GOOD.0–20
- Q4 13:52BGSUBOWLING GREEN rush for a touchdown.0–19
- Q3 12:09BGSUBOWLING GREEN Extra point GOOD.0–13
- Q3 12:09BGSUBOWLING GREEN rush for a touchdown.0–12
- Q2 0:02BGSUBOWLING GREEN 28 yard field goal GOOD.0–6
- Q1 3:29BGSUBOWLING GREEN 34 yard field goal GOOD.0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BGSU Elo 1450, TLSA Elo 1635 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BGSU +5 (38% to win) — 6.0 points clear of TLSA's market line of -1. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2013
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#23 of 93 in 2013 by biggest miss · #80 of 93 in 2013 by longest odds.
The 2013 upset archive →Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →