North Carolina at Virginia

Final· John Paul Jones Arena

North Carolina

ACC#33 AdjEM

AdjEM +14.4

Virginia

ACC#15 AdjEM

AdjEM +20.5

Scoring	H1	H2	T
North Carolina	34	51	85
Virginia	43	37	80

Our number

We projected Virginia by 8.6 at a pace of 70.1 possessions — 81% for Virginia.

From the rating snapshot of 2026-01-19, which contains no game played on or after it.

Actual -5Miss by 13.6✗ wrong side

As of 2026-01-19	AdjO	AdjD	AdjT	AdjEM
North Carolina	114.2 50	99.8 43	70.7	+14.39
Virginia	118.4 12	98.0 22	69.5	+20.49