Chart 1 of 2
Where the floor gives way
At two lossesAt three losses
Texas
100%
80%
Ohio State
99%
46%
LSU
95%
27%
Georgia
94%
24%
Oregon
83%
11%
Notre Dame
79%
4%
Miami
77%
17%
Indiana
66%
3%
Penn State
56%
3%
Texas Tech
45%
2%
Playoff probability at each final loss count, over 50,000 simulated seasons run after week one. These are raw conditionals: a team that reaches 9-3 against a brutal schedule is a better team than one that reaches 9-3 against an easy one, and some of the spread below is that.
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From Texas Tech finishes ahead of Texas and misses the playoff behind them
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