Chart 4 of 4
What the game turns on
Turnover margin37 pts
Explosive-play edge23 pts
Red-zone TDs vs FGs19 pts
Field-position / special teams15 pts
How far each factor swings the win probability when it breaks one way vs the other. The top bar is the X-factor — the thing most worth watching.
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From Week 1's blowout premium comes from better underdogs than Sam Houston
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