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What separates Hawai'i and New Mexico State

What separates Hawai'i and New Mexico State
New Mexico StatefavorsHawai'i
Last season's body of worklast year's power rating, regressed toward the averageHawai'i +5
Returning productionhow much of last year's production is back this seasonHawai'i +4
In-season formschedule-adjusted results so far this seasonNew Mexico State +3
Quarterbackthe projected starter's quality and how settled the job isHawai'i +2
Roster talentoverall talent level of the roster — recruiting pedigree plus an independent preseason roster gradeHawai'i +2

Each ingredient of our projection and the side it favors — bars toward Hawai'i are why it's the pick (home field is counted separately).

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