Every way the game could go

0%

-38

1%

-32

3%

-24

6%

-18

10%

-10

15%

-4

18%

+4

17%

+10

14%

+18

9%

+24

5%

+32

2%

+38

1%

+46

Liberty winsJames Madison wins

Market: James Madison −6Projected: James Madison by 5 (64%)

The range of outcomes for this game. Each bar is how often the final margin lands in that range — the more it leans toward James Madison, the more likely James Madison wins.