Chart 3 of 4
What the game turns on
Turnover margin19 pts
Explosive-play edge12 pts
Red-zone TDs vs FGs9 pts
Field-position / special teams8 pts
How far each factor swings the win probability when it breaks one way vs the other. The top bar is the X-factor — the thing most worth watching.
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From Duke's secondary is built to erase Illinois's deep game
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