Chart 5 of 16
Fourth down inside the 6 — expected points of each choice
Go for itKick the field goal
4th & goal at the 2
4.80
3.36
4th & 1 at the 2
3.19
3.36
4th & goal at the 3
4.46
3.34
4th & 2 at the 3
2.99
3.34
4th & goal at the 4
4.26
3.31
4th & 3 at the 4
2.76
3.31
The only situations the model wants you to go are fourth-and-GOAL. One yard further back and it flips.
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From The fourth down nobody argues about
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