Chart 15 of 16
Win rate by quartile of fourth-down decision quality
Adjusted win rate — win% after removing what the betting market expected of that team.
Worst quartile−1.81 EP per game−5.4 pts
Third−1.08 EP per game−1.0 pts
Second−0.76 EP per game+2.6 pts
Best quartile−0.42 EP per game+4.0 pts
105 team-seasons. Correlation between decision quality and win rate: +0.08.
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