Chart 12 of 16
How often each kind of mistake still felt like the right call
Share of wrong decisions that beat their own expected value. Punts excluded — their outcome is already an average.
Kicked when the model said gon=6,618 · CI 74.2–76.375.3%
Went when the model said kickn=16,269 · CI 47.5–49.148.3%
A wrong kick is rewarded three times as often as a wrong gamble. That asymmetry is the whole story.
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