Chart 3 of 3
What the game turns on
Turnover margin23 pts
Explosive-play edge16 pts
Red-zone TDs vs FGs12 pts
Field-position / special teams9 pts
How far each factor swings the win probability when it breaks one way vs the other. The top bar is the X-factor — the thing most worth watching.
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From Our extra 3.6 points on Cincinnati are almost All a disagreement about Boston College's offense
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